The Ground Rules

I’m not a seer—nor do I play one in media. My goal is to analyze current trends and juxtapose them with historical data to forecast potential future developments. While alternative methods like ayahuasca or psilocybin might offer insights, I’ll have to decline for now, especially with a toddler at home.

Given the vastness of the topic, I’ll be dividing it into three articles, each addressing these categories:

1. Energy & Transportation (this piece!)
2. Medicine & Science
3. Food & Longevity

Each part will provide both broad and specific predictions, so let's jump in.

Predicting the Future of Energy

The dependence on traditional energy sources such as coal, oil, and gas is poised for a significant transformation over the next two decades. We will see a pronounced shift towards renewable energy sources like wind, solar, geothermal, and hydro power. This evolution will be driven by two primary factors:

1. The cost of renewable energy technology is plummeting.
2. The escalating awareness of climate change is prompting action.

Initially, only the affluent will be able to afford the transition to these new energy solutions. As of March 2022, the cost to install solar panels for a typical 2,000 square-foot home in the U.S. ranges from $10,000 to $15,000, with installation expenses adding another $10,000 to $13,000. While $26,000 seems steep, it’s important to note that prices were significantly higher just a decade ago, indicating progress is indeed being made.

It's crucial to recognize that technology tends to improve over time, often at an exponential rate. A 2018 MIT article highlighted that the price of solar cells has decreased by 99%, a promising sign for the future.

The Economics & Impact

As renewable energy gains traction, manufacturing will increase, leading to a rise in supply. This boost in availability will drive down costs, making it feasible for more individuals to invest in renewable sources. Communities may pool resources to create centralized energy solutions, while reliance on fossil fuels will decline, leading to decreased investment in traditional energy sources. Consequently, the cost of these legacy fuels will likely rise, forcing users to transition to renewable alternatives.

The infrastructure for wind, solar, geothermal, and hydroelectric power will flourish, creating tens of thousands of new jobs across the U.S. and other industrialized nations. Professionals in fields like electrical engineering, computer science, and technical support will find themselves in high demand to build, install, and maintain the new energy systems.

In a similar vein to previous energy revolutions, a handful of wealthy corporations will attempt to monopolize small clean energy providers for profit maximization. However, the decentralized nature of renewable sources allows individuals to become energy independent by utilizing solar, wind, or hydro systems on their properties.

This dynamic will compel larger energy providers to offer attractive, competitive pricing to retain customers.

Today & Tomorrow

Currently, Iceland enjoys a remarkable 99.96% renewable energy supply thanks to its extensive geothermal infrastructure, providing free hot water and heating. In Reykjavík, geothermal energy even warms sidewalks to prevent ice accumulation.

In Nevada, the Ivanpah Solar Facility generates 250–350 Gigawatt hours of electricity annually, while Morocco's Ouarzazate Solar Power Station nearly doubles that output. These examples illustrate the potential of tomorrow’s energy landscape.

By 2050, it's projected that half of the world’s electricity will be sourced from renewables, with one company estimating that 77% of new electricity will come from clean sources. This presents a compelling investment opportunity, prompting me to explore ways to invest in the clean energy leaders of the future.

Video Description: This official music video by Placebo encapsulates themes of time and change, paralleling the transformations we might witness in energy and transportation over the next two decades.

Predicting the Future of Transportation

In the coming twenty years, I anticipate that most vehicles, including cars, buses, and trucks, will operate on clean, renewable energy, primarily electricity and hydrogen. However, the most significant transformation will be in the nature of who drives these vehicles—an increasing reliance on computers will redefine our experience.

As autonomous driving technology evolves, traditional driving may become obsolete. While Tesla leads the charge, other companies like Waymo, General Motors, and Zoox are rapidly advancing autonomous driving capabilities.

In the next thirty years, we may witness the emergence of "Transportation as a Service" (TaaS). Passengers will summon rides via smartphones, with two notable changes:

1. Autonomous vehicles will arrive to transport us.
2. Entry will be restricted through NFC technology on personal devices to ensure security.

This will alter the design of vehicles, eliminating the need for traditional driving controls, leading to a more spacious and comfortable travel experience.

Public & Mass Transit

Buses and trains are expected to follow suit, embracing autonomous technology and renewable fuels. Innovations will enhance user experience with cashless fare systems, personalized alerts, and internet access.

The One Holdout

School buses will likely be the last to adopt autonomous technology due to public concerns about safety. However, as society becomes accustomed to advancements, even these essential vehicles may transition to autonomous operation.

Trucking

The trucking industry, responsible for transporting a vast array of goods, will gradually shift to autonomous vehicles. Trucks will navigate independently from loading docks to destinations, with charging stations evolving to support long-haul trips.

While the move towards automation may eliminate numerous driving jobs, it will create opportunities in designing and maintaining the infrastructure for these new vehicles.

The Implications

The decline of vehicle ownership and parking needs will reshape urban landscapes, potentially leading to a loss of revenue from parking tickets and traffic citations. Cities might respond with new taxi standards, employing fleets of city-controlled autonomous vehicles to manage urban transport.

In contrast, the limousine industry will thrive, catering to affluent clients with luxurious accommodations and services.

Fear Factor

Initial concerns about safety in autonomous vehicles may hinder widespread adoption, but as technology proves to be safer than human drivers, acceptance will grow, ultimately saving countless lives.

Legacy Cars

Driving clubs may emerge for enthusiasts wishing to preserve the art of traditional driving, as the high costs of legacy fuels make them less accessible.

Employment

The shift to autonomous vehicles will disrupt millions of driving jobs globally, but new roles will emerge in the maintenance and operation of the evolving transportation ecosystem.

Get ready, friends—the future is on the horizon, bringing with it incredible innovations and changes.

Video Description: This adaptation of O. Henry's "After Twenty Years" explores themes of time and the unpredictability of the future, mirroring the journey toward a transformed energy and transportation landscape.